Vietnam To Feature Among 5 Fastest Growing Economies By 2030: HSBC

By 2030, Vietnam`s GDP is expected to reach around US$500 billion from over US$200 billion in 2018.

Vietnam, along with Bangladesh, the Philippines, Malaysia and Pakistan, are predicted to be the five fastest-growing economies out of 75 developed, emerging and frontier economies included in HSBC’s projection by 2030.

 

Illustrative photo.

Under HSBC’s latest report, Vietnam is likely to be the fourth biggest mover in the global GDP ranking (47th to 39th), ahead of Malaysia in the top five in subject. So that by 2030, the contribution to global growth from emerging Asia excluding China will be converging on that of the whole of the group of countries currently classified as developed by MSCI. 

By 2030, Vietnam’s GDP is expected to reach around US$500 billion from over US$200 billion in 2018 and GDP per capita of US$2,015, while trade continues to remain a vital part of the economy, accounting for 184.7% of GDP.

Meanwhile, Vietnam is also included in the top 10 countries that would be the most vulnerable to climate change in 2030, which is part of HSBC’s view that the fastest growing economies are also the ones most at risk from climate change. 

The trend of the past five years, of just below 3% global growth, looks like it could be sustainable, implying that by 2030, global GDP is about 40% higher than in 2017. Growth in both emerging markets (EM) and developed markets (DM) is projected to be a little weaker than over the past decade but EM now makes up a larger share of the world. 

Over the past decade EM accounted for about half of global growth and on HSBC modelled estimates, over the coming decade or so, roughly 70% of global growth will be from countries currently described as emerging. 

There is also continued room for catch-up going beyond 2030. Even in this world, and after doubling in 2007-2030, average EM GDP per capita is set to remain just a fraction of that in the west. According to HSBC’s projections, it will still be less than 15% of the developed economy average (roughly 10% today) and China’s will be below 30%. 

China is set to continue to be the single biggest contributor to global growth over the next decade and will have become the world’s largest economy by 2030. 

One of the most striking rises amongst the rankings will be by India, which is set to become the world’s third-largest economy in just over a decade, up from seventh today - leap-frogging the second- and third-largest developed economies, which are Germany and Japan. 

 

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